Well, shit. There goes my season preview post, probably. Considering baseball is on hold indefinitely, I figured writing a gigantic post about an upcoming season that may never actually happen was unproductive. If I'm really bored with absolutely nothing better to do with my time, I might consider writing that out again. Don't count on it, though. The coronavirus pandemic has thrown our lives into disarray, and as our everyday realities grow duller, sadder, and more complicated, we're left with little recourse but to escape to our minds. Playing out scenarios in our heads, imagining the outcomes in an alternate universe where baseball motored along unperturbed. On a particularly dull Monday night some buddies and I got to thinking about the DH in the National League and decided a good way to pass the time would be to go through every NL team and see who would be best suited for the role out of their current rosters. Here's what we came up with. I'll be listing the top two candidates for each team, unless we decide on a DH-by-committee. I will not be entertaining debate about whether the DH in the NL should happen at this time; I've had that conversation enough. Allons-y. Arizona DiamondbacksFirst candidate: Kevin Cron Second candidate: Seth Beer We make this choice under the reasonable assumption that the Diamondbacks will employ a first base platoon of Christian Walker and Jake Lamb. Kevin Cron, brother of CJ, is a decent power bat who has waited a long time to secure a permanent roster spot. Already 27 years old, he doesn't have any learning in the Minors left to do. He showed off his toolset briefly last year, playing in 38 games (78 PA) and hitting .211/.269/.521 (.790 OPS, 96 wRC+). One hopes the on-base numbers improve, but the slugging ability is already apparent. He mashed six home runs in this limited sample. He also played well in the abbreviated Spring Training this year for what it's worth, with an .899 OPS and 3 round trippers in 32 plate appearances. He also has 151 home runs in the Minor Leagues to his name. We cheated a bit with Seth Beer. Beer, one of the top prospects in Arizona's revamped and deep farm system, came over in the Zack Greinke trade and hopes to grab a roster spot very soon. He isn't on the Diamondbacks' 40-man roster, but MLB Pipeline lists his ETA in the Majors as 2020, which is what got me to put him down as the second option. Beer would most likely have started the season in AAA, only one call away. He put together a very solid 2019 campaign, posting a .904 OPS with 26 homers between A+ and AA. This is the first and last time I put a player with 0 MLB plate appearances on this list. We're getting the weird stuff out of the way first, I guess. Atlanta BravesFirst candidate: Adam Duvall Second candidate: Austin Riley Adam Duvall was an indispensable bat off the bench for the Braves in last year's NLDS, cracking a huge home run off Jack Flaherty in Game 2 and driving home 5 runs in total. The DH would likely provide a good home for the 31-year old, who revitalized his career this past season in Atlanta. He only got 130 plate appearances in the regular season, but he made the most of them, putting up a .267/.315/.567 triple slash (.882 OPS, 121 wRC+). With Ozuna, Acuña, and Markakis manning the outfield spots, it will be hard to find consistent playing time for Duvall next year, hence why he fits the mold of this DH thought experiment. I have Austin Riley penciled in as the starting third baseman for the Braves this year, but should the Braves prefer Johan Camargo over him at third, the DH spot would come a-callin'. Riley broke out in a huge way offensively, posting an over 1.000 OPS in the month of May, but eventually regressed and then struggled mightily, particularly with the strikeouts. He finished his rookie season hitting .226/.279/.471 (.750 OPS, 86 wRC+). Still young, entering his age 23 season, he should be getting plenty of opportunities to rekindle the flame that set him ablaze at the beginning of his MLB career. Chicago CubsFirst candidate: Kyle Schwarber Second candidate: David Bote Choosing Schwarber here is a relative no-brainer. Schwarber has a power bat that is well-suited for the DH position, and was never a natural outfielder, despite playing there for a few years now. Perhaps the -10 Statcast outs above average last year illustrates this effectively. Schwarber was one of the few Cubs who was hitting at the tail end of a disappointing 2019 season for the squad. His hard-hit rate and exit velocity are elite, as expected for a power hitter of his caliber, and his .375 xwOBA falls just short of the top 10% of hitters. For those who like conventional stats more, 38 homers and an .871 OPS in 2019 should sound good to anyone. David Bote is mostly here because I decided there needed to be a second choice, but let's hear his case. Bote is a respectable hitter (.785 OPS, 106 wRC+) who doesn't have a clear spot in the lineup now that the "Kris Bryant in Left Field" experiment appears to be at its end. Bote is a fun guy to root for, and everyone remembers his legendary walk-off grand slam. He can hit better than Ian Happ, and can cover many of the same positions Happ does. It's just that Schwarber can probably use the DH spot to greater overall team value than Bote can. Cincinnati RedsFirst candidate: Nick Castellanos Second candidate: Aristides Aquino Another no-brainer here. Castellanos' reputation as a good hitter who can't field precedes him. It's the top talking point surrounding him. I've wrote about it on this blog before. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the man I've written about the most on this blog, come to think of it. Castellanos finally got traded out of the cavernous Comerica Park, and while it interestingly didn't impact his hitting stats all that much, he got to play in the middle of a playoff race with the Cubs. That obviously didn't pan out, and now Castellanos is a division rival of those Cubs. He hit .289/.337/.525 (.863 OPS, 121 wRC+) last year, and while he doesn't pulverize baseballs quite like Schwarber does, he certainly does enough for the Reds to hand him the hypothetical DH spot without hesitation. The ballpark should help him out, too. Aquino was perhaps my favorite late-season storyline last year. The dude hit 19 home runs in 56 games--how could you not love it? Despite his meteoric rise, which broke some all-time records, he's still very much in the thick of a battle for a roster spot with players like Jesse Winker and Shogo Akiyama. I don't think he would start on Opening Day this year...if it happened. But with a DH, perhaps he gets more chances to show off that power than he would otherwise. The prospect of more Aquino magic ever tantalizes me. Colorado RockiesFirst candidate: Charlie Blackmon Second candidate: Ian Desmond Here in Denver, it's a nice fun game of pick your poison. Both Blackmon and Desmond are players who plain out struggle in the outfield. Blackmon posted -9 outs above average in the outfield last year, and Desmond posted -8. Blackmon's UZR was -10.6, Desmond's was -7.4. Now, one of these guys can still hit. It's, as you'd expect, Chuck Nasty. A .314/.364/.576 (.940 OPS, 125 OPS+) offensive season might have fallen under the radar in the midst of the Rockies' fall from Wild Card to basement dweller, but his home-road splits are alarming. Blackmon posted an unreal 1.174 OPS at Coors, but just a .731 mark outside of it. Even with highly-rated quality of contact metrics last year, Blackmon could be heading for a fall if he isn't basically the best hitter in baseball at his home park. Since the DH is about putting a good hitter in an extra slot to maximize value, I put Blackmon, the better hitter of the two, and slightly worse fielder, in first. Desmond has struggled to hit since signing that 5-year contract with the Rockies. He managed a Coors-boosted .788 OPS, which upon being park adjusted, returned a more sobering 86 wRC+. Baseball Reference rated him at a miserable -1.8 WAR, and while Fangraphs produced a more forgiving -0.3, the consensus is he provides negative value to his team. The question is, of course, why would you ever have Desmond in the lineup at all, considering the fact that he is utterly awful on offense and defense? Well, money talks, and all that guaranteed salary for Desmond as well as the Rockies' grim outlook for 2020 and beyond, means he'll be on the roster for the foreseeable future, probably until the contract finally mercifully expires ahead of the 2022 season. Rockies fans will probably just have to watch more Larry Walker highlights to keep themselves sane. Los Angeles DodgersDH by committee Simply put, the Los Angeles Dodgers are too well-constructed to have a dedicated DH. That's a weird sentence to write, isn't it? But it feels like the Dodgers' lineup just consists entirely of position players. None of these people really need to DH. Max Muncy just fits at first base, as does Turner at third, Lux and Seager up the middle, Bellinger, Betts, and Pollock in the outfield, and Smith behind the plate. I suppose you could put Joc Pederson in there, but he's a platoon hitter who struggles mightily against lefties, and you might not want him occupying that position daily. It's more likely that this lineup would use the designated hitter as a rest slot of sorts; a rotating, mercurial position for whichever player has started in the field a few too many times in a row and could use a lighter workload. Miami MarlinsFirst candidate: Jesús Aguilar Second candidate: Garrett Cooper These two are interchangeable between first base and DH. It'd be a bit awkward to have two right-handed first baseman play on the field at the same time, so just put one of em at DH. Jesús Aguilar probably wasn't expecting to be here, but the cruel randomness of the sport has a way of doing that to people. Aguilar hit 35 homers and started at 1st base in the All-Star game for the National League with Milwaukee in 2018, then his offense vanished the following season. He hit a paltry .236/.325/.389 (.714 OPS, 88 wRC+) with the Brewers and Rays before being put on waivers at season's end. The Marlins claimed him as a low-risk bounceback candidate. If he makes it even anywhere near the numbers he put up in 2018, that's awesome. If not, the Marlins don't lose much. I'd place him at DH to start the year due to his status as a bit of a project, and being new to the organization, giving the starting first base spot to Cooper. Garrett Cooper was streaky last year for the Fish, but overall solid offensively (.791 OPS at Marlins Park, which produced 111 wRC+). He's an offensively-geared player, but I would give him first base over Aguilar due to his previous seasons with the Marlins and his solid first base defense (4 OAA, compared to Aguilar's 1 OAA as an All-Star in 2018). Milwaukee BrewersFirst candidate: Ryan Braun Second candidate: Justin Smoak We already knew Ryan Braun wasn't going back into the outfield. Right now he's preparing to play 1st base full time for the first time in his career. But if the NL had the DH, he'd likely take that spot, so a natural first baseman like Smoak can play his natural position regularly. Braun, now 36 years old and entering his 14th MLB season, is on the final year of his contract. He can still hit, though. A .285/.343/.505 (.849 OPS, 117 wRC+) line did well to mask his age and poor defense. Smoak would work fine as a DH, as well, though as I previously hinted at, it probably wouldn't make sense to give the career outfielder the first base job over a career first baseman. Smoak finally finished a fruitful five-season run as the Blue Jays' starting first baseman, then essentially flip-flopped teams with Travis Shaw in free agency. Smoak has better numbers to his name in 2019 than Shaw, with a 101 wRC+ -- just above average! What's more, he's a switch hitter with two very different attitudes depending on which side he's hitting on. He hit 22 home runs with Toronto last year, and should still be a decent power source in Milwaukee. New York MetsFirst candidate: Dom Smith Second candidate: Yoenis Cespedes The Mets should love Dom Smith in this spot. Baseball Reference lists him as a "first baseman, pinch hitter, and left fielder." The Mets already have an everyday first baseman in Pete frickin' Alonso, and they have J.D. Davis, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto in the outfield. This leaves the Mets without a place to put Smith last year. This is absolutely a problem. Smith hit .282/.355/.525 (.881 OPS,133 wRC+) in 197 plate appearances. You want that in the lineup in addition to what Alonso, Nimmo, Conforto, and Davis can offer on offense. He's also a really witty dude who's easy to root for, as anyone who saw the Mets on their ESPN All-Access broadcast this spring should know. Céspedes has seen the march of time pass him by. Unfortunate injury after unfortunate injury has sidelined the former superstar for half of 2017, most of 2018, and the entirety of 2019. If he finally comes back healthy, he won't be able to keep up with the aforementioned outfield trio of Davis, Nimmo, and Conforto. He also probably wouldn't be able to put up the numbers Smith, who is 10 years younger, could. The DH would be a welcome refuge for him, though, as he needn't risk injury in the outfield. Mets fans all want to see the Céspedes chapter in New York end on a good note. The DH would certainly help with that. Unfortunately, this year is the last of his contract, so we won't be seeing him in the DH spot outside of maybe some interleague games? But nothing is guaranteed this year. Philadelphia PhilliesJay Bruce, or DH by committee There aren't many options for the Phillies here. They wouldn't immediately benefit from a DH spot. I feel that similarly to the Dodgers, they could use it as a rotating slot for hitters who've done a little too much fielding and could use a reduced workload for the day. If you insist on giving the DH spot to somebody in particular, Jay Bruce is still here, and damn near the only thing he did last year was hit dingers. Seriously, his OBP was .235 with the Phillies, and .263 overall on the season splitting time between Seattle and Philadelphia. But he hit 26 homers in 98 games. There's value to be had here, assuming he doesn't have an OBP below .300 again. That said, if he really is reaching base below 30% of the time, you'd probably be better off making the DH a committee spot, with Bruce coming in as a pinch hitter if you want to play matchups. Pittsburgh PiratesFirst choice: Colin Moran Second choice: José Osuna Colin Moran has been somewhat of an enigma for the Pirates. A fairly well-regarded prospect with Houston before heading to the Steel City in the Gerrit Cole trade, his offense failed to materialize, with a .746 OPS in two seasons as a Buc. What's key here, though, is his third base defense, which has not been pretty. He posted -10 outs above average at the hot corner in 2018, and -7 in 2019. Putting Moran at DH mercifully shields Pirates fans from Moran's glovework. If you're the Pirates, you can probably put Erik Gonzalez at third instead and keep a straight face, but if he can't hit, you might begrudgingly move Moran back to third. José Osuna has not gotten much playing time in an outfield that frankly has better options than playing him everyday. He could be an intriguing DH candidate, though. He's never been a league average hitter, but he showed significant improvements with the bat in 2019, going from hitting .226/.252/.396 in 2018 to .264/.310/.456, a whole 118-point jump in OPS. I think this is a good indication that the Pirates shouldn't give up on him yet, especially as the new front office regime led by Ben Cherington prepares to rebuild. San Diego PadresFirst candidate: Tommy Pham Second candidate: Franchy Cordero Pham has never been known for his defense. He's an on-base wizard with great contact skills, but a bit of a butcher in the outfield, posting an unsightly -11 outs above average in left with the Rays last year. Now a Padre, he'll have no other option to play the field, but in this thought experiment, we offer him the refuge of the DH spot. Now he can focus on his hitting, which is his calling card. Last year with the Rays he hit .273/.369/.450 (.818 OPS, 121 wRC+), and it would have been better if he didn't slow down a bit in the second half. People might have forgotten about Franchy Cordero. That's because he was injured for most of 2019. He underwent right elbow surgery in June and missed the remainder of the season. Cordero hasn't lit the league on fire yet (.737 career OPS), but he has the requisite power for the DH position. The drag against him is his struggles against lefties. He has a career .592 OPS against southpaws, which would likely keep him out of the lineup on some days. Do you want a platoon player at the DH spot every day? You'd probably prefer Pham on there. Nevertheless, I do really like Franchy and hope he breaks out. Just...probably not as a DH. San Francisco GiantsDH by committee Look, the Giants are old. Buster Posey is 33. Brandon Crawford is 33. Evan Longoria is 34. Hunter Pence is 36. Any of these guys should be allowed to DH on any given day, because baseball is hard to play, and they've been doing it for a long time. It's a very different DH by committee than the Dodgers and Phillies--not a celebration of their depth and structure, but a sad reminder that all good things must end, and the Giants are finally at the point where they must rebuild and start over. Many players from the old core remain, as do other veterans who were brought along in a vain attempt to keep it alive. They know where they stand now. St. Louis CardinalsFirst candidate: Matt Carpenter Second candidate: Tyler O'Neill The Cardinals long stood as a great example for what NL teams could accomplish with a DH. Now with José Martinez traded to Tampa Bay, it's more the Cubs and Reds who show that the most. Anyway, we still have two candidates here. Matt Carpenter is up first. The secret salsa that gave him a power boost in a big way in 2018 (.897 OPS, 36 HR) couldn't provide a repeat performance in 2019 (.726 OPS, 15 HR). Staring down father time, Carpenter doesn't justify time in the lineup over Tommy Edman or Kolten Wong. The DH could potentially give the 34-year old a chance to provide offensive value without taking playing time from those two. Should he continue to decline, Tyler O'Neill is an intriguing second option. Now, O'Neill figures to start the season as the starting left fielder due to the departures of Martinez and Marcell Ozuna, but the man to watch for in this is Dylan Carlson. The young outfield prospect turned heads in Spring Training, and could be up in the Majors very soon. In the event of Carlson coming up and making waves in The Show, O'Neill could pivot over to the DH spot. O'Neill is known for his bulging muscles, and while he doesn't have many homers to his name in the MLB, he has 170 homers in his Minor League career. Plus, he's marketable as all hell. This would be my ideal scenario for the Cardinals, but as for right now, O'Neill has a starting spot and Carpenter does not, so Carpenter is ranked higher. Washington NationalsFirst candidate: Howie Kendrick Second candidate: Eric Thames Howie Kendrick was perhaps the single most valuable offensive player in the Nationals' World Series title run aside from maybe Juan Soto. And yet he enters the 2020 season without a concrete position on the field. The Nationals have Carter Kieboom at third, Starlin Castro at second, and a platoon of Ryan Zimmerman and Eric Thames at first base. But come on; even if he'll turn 37 in July, you've gotta find a place in the lineup for a fan favorite who hit .344/.395/.572 (.966 OPS, 146 wRC+) last year. That's where the DH comes in and provides him with a guaranteed lineup spot. Thames is included here as a second option due to his slugging tendencies (2019 stats: .247/.346/.505, .851 OPS, 117 wRC+, 25 HR), but I think the Nationals intend to use him as a platoon first baseman with Ryan Zimmerman due to his .679 OPS against left-handed pitching last year, as opposed to .877 vs. righties. Zimmerman, for his part, posted a .966 OPS against lefties, while struggling against righties to the tune of a .645 clip. It'd probably be a no-brainer for Davey Martinez to platoon the two and give Howie the DH position. Unfortunately, he can't do that yet! He has to either keep on the bench, or put him at 2nd and take time away from Starlin Castro! This is why the NL is inferior. And on that incendiary note...Thanks for reading this post! This one was a ton of fun to cobble together, because it involves thinking about a rule change that I hope to see in the Majors very soon! Some teams could obviously really use a DH spot, others can manage perfectly fine without it. And some teams are trash either way!
I feel like this is how the content is gonna be over the COVID-19 postponement. I'll need all the ideas I can muster. If you have an interesting thought experiment like this one you want me to try out, Tweet at me, @JeremyN75.* *I reserve the right to tell you if your idea is trash. Alright, that's all from me. Have a good week, stay safe, and wash your hands.
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About MeI'm Jeremy, and I like baseball. Watching it and writing about it mainly. This is where the latter goes. My other hobbies include video games, singing, biking, and slacking off. I live in New Jersey and go to school at Goucher College in Baltimore. That's me on TV! If you want a better look, check out this video. Watch the stands on Kyle Lewis' home run very closely. Look for the skinny guy with the Yankees hat.
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