The Hot Stove Dragon has reawakened from its slumber. A free agent signing, a major trade, a much-needed update to the replay review system, and a proposed rule change that could alter the landscape of baseball forever in the near future are all on the table today. Let's get to it before the flames cool off. Castellanos Signs With CincinnatiFrom my post last Thursday on Nicholas Castellanos' potential free agent destinations: "Cincinnati Reds - There have been rumors linking Castellanos to the Reds, but aside from ballpark I don't like the fit. The Reds will be pushing a lot of guys they should probably give time to prove themselves, into bench roles (namely, Aquino). Considering that there are rumors, though, I'm including them to cover my ass in case a deal is made. Doesn't mean I'm gonna like it." Y'all heard it here first! Covering your own ass pays dividends! So Nicholas Castellanos this morning agreed to a 4 year, $64 million contract with the Redlegs, marking the final big name free agent coming off the board. See, baseball? That wasn't so hard! We're in January this year instead of freakin' June! Anyway, there's a little bit of sticker shock here for me with Castellanos. Maybe this was short-sighted of me, but I really wasn't expecting much more than a 2 year deal at around $20 million for a somewhat one-dimensional player. I certainly wasn't expecting a 4 year deal at an average annual value of 16 million bucks. And not to a team with such a crowded roster as the Cincinnati Reds. I said in the previous post that I wasn't a fan of a potential deal here because of the young talent they could be pushing into bench roles because of the way the National League is. (More on that later...) If you go ahead and put Castellanos in right field, the position he's played regularly since moving from 3rd base a few years ago, you probably have to put one of Aristides Aquino, Shogo Akiyama, Jesse Winker, or Nick Senzel on the bench. You could--and should--put Senzel at short, but that still leaves Aquino, Akiyama, and Winker jockeying for position. It looks like Aquino would be the weak link here, which saddens me. But he'll get a chance to fight for a spot in Spring Training and that prospect excites me. So it's not all bad. Jon Heyman mentioned in passing that Cincinnati might consider putting Senzel up for trade, which doesn't really make sense to me if he can play shortstop, and do so more productively than Freddy Galvis. If anyone, Galvis should be the man on the move here. Plenty of teams can use a well-traveled veteran shortstop who's solid with the glove and can hit a little. Rebuilding teams love those guys. It's clear Cincinnati isn't a rebuilding club anymore. They're competing. Even then, they can just keep him as a depth infielder anyway. Is there any reason to trade anyone? Anyway, the Castellanos signing only reaffirms my prediction that the Reds will be NL Central Champs. My confidence in them is even higher. You are only making me more powerful. Designated Hitter in the National League - Coming 2021?!In more power-related news, this. Jim Bowden Tweeted this afternoon that there is "a growing belief amongst NL GM’s" that the designated hitter will come to the National League as soon as 2021. This, as you'd expect, has been met with mixed reactions. There's the "but I like seeing pitchers hit dingers" camp and the "but pitchers can't hit to save their lives" camp. Which side are you on? As with most stat nerds on this issue, I am firmly in the pro-universal DH sphere. Perhaps some open-minded anti-DH people are reading this blog right now and wonder why I arrive to that conclusion, hoping to learn in good faith. Well, you're in luck! I'll lay out my entire argument here. I'll start with the immediately obvious: the pitcher hitting. You know what I'm gonna say. Pitchers can't hit. According to Baseball Reference, the average pitcher's OPS in 2019 was .322. The average hitter, .758. Blah-de-blah=de-blah. You know it, I know it, there's no point in beating the dead horse further. That's definitely important. But my main points about the DH's true benefit surround allocation of playing time and overall offensive value. I have a few examples to illustrate what I mean. First off, last year's St. Louis Cardinals. Their top four outfielders were Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader, Dexter Fowler, and Jose Martinez. Bader has an elite glove but a below average bat, while Martinez has a great bat and terrible defense. By playing one over the other, you are making a sacrifice either defensively or offensively (they call it "strategy" in the NL, I call it "a liability."). Now, with a DH, obviously, that isn't a problem. You just stick Martinez at DH so he and Bader can be in the lineup together (along with Ozuna and Fowler) and they can all contribute to the lineup in their own ways. And they don't have to waste Martinez' lineup spot on a pitcher, who can only realistically hope to move the runner up a base at best on an overwhelming majority of his plate appearances. This offseason, Jose Martinez was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays. Of course, the Rays have such a unique roster structure that it's a little muddier to determine a projected roster, but with the DH being there, Kevin Cash can start him with the confidence that he's not taking any playing time away from players such as Austin Meadows and Hunter Renfroe. It's a simple value proposition. Having both guys in the same lineup will get you more value than one guy over the other. It also means guys aren't competing for playing time as much, which likely has a positive effect on clubhouse culture and relations. I'll use one more example to drive home my point: the Bomba Squad. The Minnesota Twins broke the single season home run record last year, and their top slugger in terms of overall homer output was Nelson Cruz. As a full-time designated hitter, Cruz pulverized 41 home runs. But imagine for a moment if the Twins played in the National League and Cruz had to play either in the outfield or at first base to stay in the lineup. He would have to compete for playing time with Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, and C.J. Cron. There's no way the Twins as productive that way. With Cruz at DH, that's not a problem. All those players can play every day, contributing more value and forcing less competition for roster spots. Cruz also doesn't subtract value from the team playing the field over a superior defender like Kepler. That's more exciting to me than pitchers striking out, double-switches, and awkward roster logjams. They say it's a "good problem to have," but it's still a problem, and the DH is the easiest way to solve it. Marte Joins Marte in Arizona!This news dropped while I was writing this. After trade rumors on Starling Marte went cold for a few months, they flared back up again and instantly came to fruition this afternoon when the Arizona Diamondbacks made their move. They traded their #7 and #9 ranked prospects to the Pittsburgh Pirates to acquire the 31-year old center fielder, as part of many adroit moves by management to position themselves back into playoff contention. Marte last year turned in 119 WRC+, quietly effective for a bad team. He becomes a free agent in 2021 ahead of the 2022 season unless the Diamondbacks pick up his team option for that year. The prospects the Pirates received in return are two nineteen-year-olds: shortstop Liover Peguero (#7) and right handed pitcher Brennan Malone (#9). They're described as having high ceilings, but also a high risk factor. It's a bold move by new GM Ben Cherington, placing faith in his organization's ability to develop these players with high upside but also high volatility. It continues a series of events that show the Pirates are finally ready to accept a rebuild, which often comes with a change at the general managing position. (We may be seeing it right now in Boston, too. Keep an eye on Mookie Betts rumors.) For Arizona's part, they're looking more like a competitor with each passing hour. Starling will slot in center field, where he's played in Pittsburgh, with David Peralta and free agent newcomer Kole Calhoun manning the corner spots in left and right respectively. Ketel will move back to second base full time, placing Eduardo Escobar back at the hot corner, while Nick Ahmed continues to put in Gold Glove defense at short. At first base, expect a lefty-righty platoon of Christian Walker and Jake Lamb. Carson Kelly, one of the top returns of the Paul Goldschmidt trade from last winter, stays behind the plate. Of course, I'm super excited for the Marte and Marte Show (trademarked, registered, copyright 2020), but there's a lot to like about this lineup in general. Arizona's pitching remains a bit iffy and devoid of top-flight talent (yes, I know they have Bumgarner, no, he's not what he used to be). But their farm system still has a lot of young players like J.B. Bukauskas and Corbin Martin (spoils from the Greinke trade) looking to make an impact, and they already have said impact at the plate. Marte is a solid all-around player who just makes the D-Backs lineup even more ready to compete. This was a fun trade all around. Mic'd Up Umps Are Finally Here!This was a loooong time coming. The league finally stated today that umpires would be given microphones to clarify calls that have been challenged and reviewed, in a similar fashion to referees in the NFL and NHL. We finally get to hear their exact thought process, which is huge for transparency and just overall ease of communication. It was frustrating in the past when we'd just see "safe" or "out" signs with no justification as to how they arrived at that call. That won't be a problem anymore. Better late than never! That's all for today! Today was a pretty lively one as far as baseball news in the middle of January. Opening Day still feels so far away from now; I only hope we haven't exhausted all of our fun stuff before Spring Training. Pitchers and catchers report across the league from the 10th to the 12th of February. Real preseason activity in exactly two weeks! I can't wait to see guys in new uniforms, and exciting young players hoping to take the league by storm. The anticipation is killing me.
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Alright. So. The Astros thing happened. I've thought enough about that debacle and I'm just ready to move on from something beyond my control. All I'll say is the 2017 Yankees should've made the World Series. Aaron Judge probably shoulda won MVP, too. Hindsight's 20/20 though. I won't be talking about that anymore. It's about time I started writing again. I've taken a very longwinded, almost journalistic approach to this blog in the past which can make writing exhausting. I think I'm overthinking it. So today I'll just air out some thoughts about recent happenings in the MLB offseason. I'm a naturally talkative guy so I'll probably write a lot more than I think/hope I will. Some Thoughts on the Marcell Ozuna DealTo preface this, I won't be overwhelming you with stats this time because it's frankly a lot of effort--I'll leave it to you, the reader, to investigate at your own leisure. Baseball Savant is my recommendation, and if you need any help understanding some of the numbers I have an article on that stuff here. Got it? Good. Let's talk about Marcell Ozuna. This isn't where he wanted to be. The Cardinals got him from the Marlins and expected more of the guy who torched the league en route to an All-Star selection, a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove in left field with Miami in 2017. Unfortunately, shoulders injuries prevented him from reaching that peak, and that was brought to bear with an ugly regression in his defensive abilities. His throwing arm went from strong to perhaps the weakest among any full-time outfielder in the league, and his foot speed has undergone a similar trend. At the plate, he slugged enough to earn his keep, and had some torrid stretches where he looked like the fearsome complement to Stanton and Yelich in the middle of the Marlins' lineup. But he couldn't keep it consistent, and after a tough NLCS against Washington sent him to free agency on an unceremonious note, he bet on himself with a one-year, $18 million pact with the Atlanta Braves. While it's not a big free agent payday--far from it--I like this deal for him, as he joins a playoff team who's hungry after...well, you know what happened last year. Also, he could stand to see a jump in production simply from the players around him in the lineup, like Acuña and Freeman. I like it for the Braves because it should be illegal to complain about any one-year deal, ever. People complained about the one-year Josh Donaldson contract, for crying out loud, and now Braves fans are the ones crying out loud now that he's in Minnesota. It's actually a fairly similar scenario to Donaldson's deal. Ozuna is damaged goods, but his peripherals are still very encouraging (his xwOBA was actually comparable to Acuña, Freeman, and Donaldson, despite inferior tangible results). If he can stay healthy and realize the potential his analytics prognosticate, he'll be yet another steal for Atlanta, and will probably be easier to re-sign than Donaldson, too. If not, move on, and try another. Are the Reds a playoff team?It's too early to lock anything in, but the Reds have drawn me in. I haven't talked too much about Cincinnati aside from Luis Castillo's dominance and Aristides Aquino's rise to nationwide notoriety. But I've been fascinated by their rebuilding process since last winter, when they went out and made some bold moves, trading for Sonny Gray and Yasiel Puig. If not franchise-altering (at least, not one of them), they added intrigue to a team penciled in to lose 90 games again. Of course, Sonny Gray had a masterful campaign his first year in Cincinnati, receiving downballot Cy Young support. As the year progressed, the Reds called up top prospect Nick Senzel, traded for Trevor Bauer, and got 49 dingers from Eugenio Suarez. I won't count on a repeat performance, but 35 homers is easily reachable for him. This offseason they've added Mike Moustakas and Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama in free agency. They enrich a hitting core that was lacking in firepower overall but still has weapons (I checked, and Jesse Winker actually had a sneaky good offensive season.) A big question: where does Nick Senzel play next year? If it's the infield, top prospect Jonathan India may become a trade chip for a piece that pushes them solidly into contender status. I'm also operating under the assumption that Aristides Aquino's torrid rise is for real. Is it a dangerous assumption? Yes, but this entire section is a dangerous assumption, soooooo...yeah. Let me have fun. Wade Miley was added as rotational depth. Anthony Desclafani would work as a fifth starter for damn near any team in baseball. Their bullpen is also underrated. Raisel Iglesias, Amir Garrett, and Michael Lorenzen are all really good! Robert Stephenson, Lucas Sims, and Matt Bowman had good peripherals too, even if their performances varied. I've kinda convinced myself into thinking they could win the division if the Cardinals and Cubs don't make any big moves for the rest of the offseason. (Keep an eye on Nolan Arenado, I guess...?) Here's a rough estimate of their Opening Day roster. What do you think? Could this team make the postseason? C - Tucker Barnhart/Curt Casali 1B - Joey Votto 2B - Mike Moustakas 3B - Eugenio Suarez SS - Nick Senzel/Freddy Galvis LF - Jesse Winker/Josh VanMeter CF - Shogo Akiyama/Nick Senzel RF - Aristides Aquino SP - Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, Wade Miley, Anthony Deslafani RP - Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson, Lucas Sims, Justin Shafer, Tyler Mahle, Matt Bowman, Raisel Iglesias Where is Nicholas Castellanos heading?Here's a shortlist of the best available free agents remaining after the Braves signed Ozuna: - Nicholas Castellanos - Cameron Maybin? - Hunter Pence? - Andrew Cashner? - The Astros' Trash Can? - Gritty? As you can see, the free agent market has just about completely thinned out to the point where Castellanos is the only player with over 2 WAR last year still on the market. Who can use his bat and is willing to cope with the defensive liabilities that unfortunately accompany every mention of him? (Gee, I wonder why he isn't signed yet...) Cleveland Indians - The Indians haven't had a DH since they traded Edwin Encarnacion away to Seattle last offseason, and the "position" last year was a slapdash rotation of regular players who were given the treat of not having to field today. If the Indians are favoring a rebuild, they may feel more incentivized to consider a less expensive stopgap option. But Castellanos can still provide value as a trade piece over the deadline if they sign him to a 1-year deal and he produces offensively from the DH spot. This way, a team that may not have thought they needed him over the winter can pounce on him if they feel they need an extra bat. Now, who would you rather have play the field? Castellanos, or Franmil Reyes? I think Franmil has a slight edge, but it's not an enviable situation. Seattle Mariners - I actually kinda like this fit. He profiles as a better Domingo Santana who probably won't have to play the field nearly as much over the youth the Mariners are excited about, and Mitch Haniger. They also might be able to offer him multiple years if they see their rebuild concluding sooner rather than later and want him to be there for the playoff push. Daniel Vogelbach might want reps at DH, so that lineup spot isn't totally set. If Jerry Dipoto likes Austin Nola at 1st base (which is understandable) this won't be nearly as much of a fit, because it would likely push Vogelbach to full-time DH and Castellanos to the outfield. It's an idea to play with, though. Texas Rangers - Now, I am aware that the Rangers have Joey Gallo in right, Shin-Soo Choo at DH, and Willie Calhoun in left. So this might not be the best fit in the world. But they may wish to account for Choo's increasing age, even as his production continues at this point in time. And maybe most of all, they're looking for any kind of win in free agency. They were in rumors for Anthony Rendon, and lost him to a division rival because they weren't willing to provide enough years on a contract. Similar story with Josh Donaldson, who seemed like a great potential fit for the Rangers. Their final signing at 3rd base? Todd Frazier. Ouch. Maybe getting Castellanos could serve as a flashy little distraction for a year or two before the pain of watching Rendon in Angels red gets unbearable. Chicago Cubs - Yes, the Cubs would have to play him in the field every night. Yes, he is better offensively than any other Cubs outfielder. Plus, the fans seemed to like him when he came from Detroit and scorched the entire North Side. I don't really see this happening, but the familiarity between both parties could facilitate a deal. Cincinnati Reds - There have been rumors linking Castellanos to the Reds, but aside from ballpark I don't like the fit. The Reds will be pushing a lot of guys they should probably give time to prove themselves, into bench roles (namely, Aquino). Considering that there are rumors, though, I'm including them to cover my ass in case a deal is made. Doesn't mean I'm gonna like it. San Francisco Giants - The Giants would be acquiring Castellanos for a similar purpose Cleveland would in this scenario. Build up value, dangle him around the trade market and see if anyone needs the help. However, Castellanos may not want to hit at such a cavernous ballpark in San Fran, having just escaped another veritable canyon in Comerica Park, which would be understandable. Colorado Rockies - Embrace chaos. This will not happen. It is fan fiction. Carry on. St. Louis Cardinals - In case they missed Jose Martinez. That's about it. The contending teams are hard to come by--which may be another factor in Castellanos' inability, or perhaps reticence, to sign anywhere yet. Someone will eventually want reasonably priced offensive value though. Oh, wait, what about that Yasiel Puig fellow?I guess I should consider this guy, whose reputation precedes him. Yasiel Puig is more of a name at this point (1.2 fWAR, .785 OPS, 102 wRC+ this past season), but he can still play. While Castellanos provides more offensive upside, Puig is a good alternative with a more well-rounded skillset. The big draw against him is that he gets off to very, very slow starts, and that's not what a win-at-all-costs team might be looking for. I think the Cleveland Indians will likely re-sign him and look to get a deal going midseason. Whether Castellanos goes along with him for the same purpose remains to be seen. I could see a lot of the same teams who might get Castellanos getting Puig, for similar reasons. He seems well-positioned to a return to The Land, though. I like him and hope he gets off to a decidedly less frigid start than last year. That's all from me today! If you like this blog, and want me to write more, annoy me a lot! I swear, that'll work. See ya next time, which will hopefully be soon and not in 5 months!
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About MeI'm Jeremy, and I like baseball. Watching it and writing about it mainly. This is where the latter goes. My other hobbies include video games, singing, biking, and slacking off. I live in New Jersey and go to school at Goucher College in Baltimore. That's me on TV! If you want a better look, check out this video. Watch the stands on Kyle Lewis' home run very closely. Look for the skinny guy with the Yankees hat.
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