The voting for the 2019 MLB All-Star Game has reached the finalist stage. Plenty of deserving candidates were submitted, and others snubbed, to reach this point. But this is what matters. Every position has just a few names left to choose from. Armed with Statcast numbers from Baseball Savant (and some occasional help from Fangraphs), I'll show you which players deserve your vote. Of course, all the big market teams are gonna win the votes anyway, but hey, it's the thought that counts. AL 1B: Luke Voit (NYY) vs. Carlos Santana (CLE) vs. C.J. Cron (MIN)This race is a game of inches that ultimately leaves Luke Voit on the outside looking in. I am a hotblooded Yankees fan, but I can't be biased. For as well as he has performed this year (.378 wOBA, .379 xwOBA, .508 xSLG) after last year's coming out party, those metrics aren't quite at the same level as the other two first basemen on this list. Santana is back in Cleveland where it appears he belongs and putting together a career year. He's slashing just about .300/.400/.500, and advanced stats love him too. Not only does he destroy the baseball (95th percentile exit velo and 88th percentile hard hit rate), his expected stats also shine bright (.405 wOBA, .394 xwOBA, .519 xSLG). C.J. Cron is one of the biggest contributors to a power surge the Minnesota Twins have never seen before in their franchise's history. His obscenely high .568 xSLG certainly portrays the raw power he has displayed. He's also put together a .370 wOBA and .393 xwOBA. Verdict: It's hard to go wrong picking either Santana or Cron, but let's be real. Regular stats matter too. And in terms of OPS, Santana (.951) is outpacing Cron (.871) by 80 points. Their Statcast metrics are comparable enough that sometimes, a good ol' tiebreaker using good ol' comprehensible stats works well enough. Winner: Carlos Santana NL 1B: Josh Bell (PIT) vs. Freddie Freeman (ATL) vs. Anthony Rizzo (CHC)Josh Bell is a blast to watch. He has broken out in a big way this year, his third full year in the bigs. He is the big challenger among these finalists, taking on the two most recognized first basemen in the league. He certainly has good reason to be considered. He sports a 1.013 OPS. His hard hit rate and average exit velocity rank within the top 10 of the entire league. He also sports a wOBA of .416, an xwOBA of .391 and an xSLG of .572, all decidedly elite marks. He punishes baseballs. Meanwhile, in the AL East, Freddie Freeman is once again quietly compiling another fantastic season. One of the greatest contact hitters of our generation, Freeman is approaching a 1.000 OPS while hitting the tar out of baseballs. His hard hit numbers don't compare as well as Josh Bell's, but he triumphs in a slightly more important area: xwOBA. His .418 xwOBA ranks 5th in the NL behind Cody Bellinger, Anthony Rendon (criminally snubbed), Christian Yelich and...Howie Kendrick? (Remind me to write about Howie Kendrick...) He also has an edge in terms of WAR (Freeman - 2.8 WAR, Bell - 2.3 WAR, Rizzo - 2 WAR according to Fangraphs). Freeman is the perfect combo of on-base and contact skills. It's hard to find a more complete hitter, especially at first base. Finally, Anthony Rizzo. He can't claim to be as proficient at destroying baseballs as the others, but he still has a very impressive .390 wOBA, .400 xwOBA, and .526 xSLG. But those stats, as great as they are, fall behind Bell's xSLG and Freeman's xwOBA. Verdict: Freeman has no weaknesses. Bell hasn't really had any either, but Freeman's better on-base numbers push him over the top. Winner: Freddie Freeman AL 2B: Jose Altuve (HOU) vs. Tommy La Stella (LAA) vs. DJ LeMahieu (NYY)I'll be quick and blunt. Jose Altuve doesn't belong here. Not only has he only amassed 192 plate appearances (compared to 290 for La Stella and 331 for LeMahieu), his play has been far below Altuve's standard over the years (blame injuries for that) and hardly All-Star worthy. La Stella, meanwhile, has far exceeded his standards from previous seasons and has solidly entrenched himself as a starting-caliber infielder for the Angels. He's played more this year than any year in his career, and his xwOBA of .355 and xSLG of .471 are career highs. He's a soft contact guy, but it's working well for him, and his xBA is way up there too. But DJ LeMahieu. Hoo boy. I was wrong about this guy. He is everything the Yankees could've possibly hoped for as a free agent acquisition. He hits the ball hard, constantly reaches base, and is recently finding his power stroke. His xBA of .309, xwOBA of .383 and xSLG of .485 outclass the rest. He's also one of the best clutch/situational hitters in the game. He has an OPS of 1.195 with runners in scoring position. Verdict: LeMahieu is just too consistently good at reaching and producing to not be the choice here. Altuve hasn't played enough, and La Stella, while being a pleasant surprise, doesn't match DJ's production. Winner: DJ LeMahieu NL 2B: Ozzie Albies (ATL) vs. Ketel Marte (ARI) vs. Mike Moustakas (MIL)Ozzie Albies, the diminutive but affable and capable infielder for the Braves, enters the ring. He won't hit the ball hard, but he is fast, opportunistic, and well-rounded. He's a decidedly old-fashioned infielder in a sport that values power. He's been effective, with a .362 xwOBA and .490 xSLG. But is it All-Star caliber? Honestly, not really, with respect to his opponents in this race. Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks is a name not too many people know, but he's made his presence felt in a big way this year. Marte has undergone an unexpected power surge, and has already achieved a career high in homers with 20. He sports a wOBA of .397, an xwOBA of .369, xSLG of .523, and 3.7 offensive WAR according to Fangraphs, first among all 2nd basemen. Moustakas has some name recognition from his time with at third base with the championship Royals of 2015 which may give him an edge over Marte. But will it work? Well, his 22 homers compare favorably to Marte. But more importantly, he has established new career highs in xwOBA (.376) and xSLG (.527), at least for now. They just barely edge out Marte. However, his 2.7 WAR falls a full one win short of Marte's mark. (If you desire another source for WAR because of how it is, Marte still wins 3.7 to 3 on Baseball Reference.) Verdict: Similiarly to the Cron/Santana situation earlier, you could go either way with Marte or Moustakas. I'll give Marte the win here, though, because he adds more value to his team than does Moustakas, with extremely similar Statcast numbers and production. Winner: Ketel Marte AL 3B: Alex Bregman (HOU) vs. Hunter Dozier (KC) vs. Gio Urshela (NYY)Alex Bregman is having another great year at the hot corner for the Astros, with a .371 xwOBA to go along with his 22 homers and 52 RBI. He's slugging .539, but xSLG projects a much lower .443. His quality of contact is decidedly poorer than that of Dozier and Urshela, but good counting stats and name recognition will likely carry him here. Onward to Hunter Dozier, the first man I covered on this blog. Two months after that initial post, Dozier has slowed his home run pace (hard to hit 'em at Kaufman) but his quality of contact as well as on-base ability has remained excellent. Sporting a .407 wOBA, .382 xwOBA, and .520 xSLG that exceed his two competitors, he has a fantastic case for the All-Star Game that is overshadowed somewhat by his relative obscurity. Playing in one of the smallest markets in the country in your breakout season tends to have that effect. Then, finally, Urshela. Rafael Devers of the Red Sox should've been a finalist over him, but oh well. I will dwell on Urshela less than the others. His stats (.812 OPS, .304 xBA, .356 xwOBA, .468 xSLG) are all well and good, but Urshela doesn't even play every day for the Yankees right now. Why should a guy who's on the bench more often than not make the All-Star game over Dozier or Bregman? Verdict: With Urshela disqualified due to being a friggin' backup, we're left with Bregman and Dozier. Bregman has the counting stats in his favor, but Dozier's excellent expected stats and peripherals as well as higher quality of contact earn him the edge in this fight. Fat chance you'll actually see him start over Bregman, though, considering what the fan vote is. Winner: Hunter Dozier NL 3B: Nolan Arenado (COL) vs. Kris Bryant (CHC) vs. Josh Donaldson (ATL)Angry doesn't begin to describe it. I'm furious. Incensed. Intensely disgruntled. How did Anthony Rendon not make the cut? Were Nationals fans too demoralized by the state of their franchise to vote for him? Nah, I doubt that -- it's probably Braves fans' fault. Ha. Anyway. Even though Rendon has been better than all three of these third baseman this year, and should receive MVP consideration, this is the lot we're stuck with. First: Arenado. No, that image is not incorrect. He's just hitting like a slightly above average player this year. Before you shout "COORS" to all of Arenado's offensive accomplishments, know that this is somewhat of a down year when it comes to his peripherals. Not on the big scoreboard at Coors Field, mind you, but in Nerdland here. A .355 xwOBA and .462 xSLG are just not the elite level we've come to expect from Arenado over the years. But he still has a .953 OPS which will keep him relevant in the discussion. Next up is Kris Bryant. Finally healthy again after a rocky 2018, Bryant is helping to lead the charge for the Cubs offense with a .934 OPS, .394 wOBA, and .376 xwOBA. And he's doing it without hitting the tar out of the ball. On the other hand, Josh Donaldson of the Braves is massacring the ball with elite exit velo and hard rate, and has compiled a .364 wOBA, .377 xwOBA, and .508 xSLG. Seems like that calf is healthy again. Verdict: Donaldson gets my vote due to his superior peripherals and insane hard hit stats. Ironic. The man that seems to have stolen his spot from Rendon turns out to be the most deserving, and Arenado seems to be the odd one out. Winner: Josh Donaldson Though, just to underscore my disgust, here. Have Anthony Rendon's MLB rankings according to Statcast. Feel free to compare it to the three "finalists." AL SS: Carlos Correa (HOU) vs. Jorge Polanco (MIN) vs. Gleyber Torres (NYY)I get it. Francisco Lindor wasn't on here because he missed a lot of time with injury. But he's actually put together more plate appearances (276) than Correa (214). Correa's numbers are very, very good (.394 wOBA, .406 xwOBA, .561 xSLG, but he hasn't played nearly as much as Polanco (344 PA) and Torres (309). Polanco has been a breakout player for the Twins and an integral part of their slugging revolution. Despite not being a very hard hitter, he collects extra base hits in high volume, with a .532 SLG and .500 xSLG. His xwOBA of .366 is also quite respectable. Torres got here by the voting power of the New York market. His peripherals are...fine, but nothing to write home about. He's been about average offensively, not particularly excelling in anything. His xwOBA of .345 and xSLG of .480 are both above average, but they fall short of Polanco and Correa. Verdict: Correa is actually a perfectly fair vote to make, as when he's healthy, he is absolutely All-Star caliber. But my vote goes to Polanco, who has gotten more time to make his case. His numbers have been fantastic, and he's putting in work for a very impressive Twins' offense. Winner: Jorge Polanco NL SS: Javier Baez (CHC) vs. Trevor Story (COL) vs. Dansby Swanson (ATL)Paul DeJong deserved a shot, but ah well. Let's look at who we have. There sure is a lot of red here. Javier Baez was the NL MVP runner-up last year, and this year, he has maintained that level of play. Baez has a .357 xwOBA and .529 xSLG, as well as 2.9 WAR, which is tied with Trevor Story. Story has the batted ball skills and surprisingly elite speed, but his expected stats fall a bit short of the mark. A .340 xwOBA and .456 xSLG fall short of his competition. Now, Swanson. How'd he get here? Same reason as Donaldson. But he does have a lot of reason to be here, surprisingly. He has an xwOBA of .367 and xSLG of .508 which compare similarly to Baez. However, his real life numbers fall quite short of the Cubs' star. His .786 OPS is nearly 100 points less than Baez' .874. Verdict: Yeah, Swanson's a nice dark horse candidate for Statcast, but Baez has just about matched his peripherals while putting together more real world production, which certainly counts. Winner: Javier Baez AL C: Robinson Chirinos (HOU) vs. James McCann (CHW) vs. Gary Sanchez (NYY)Catchers have made a comeback offensively this year after the doldrums of last year where there were maaaaaybe two good offensive catchers? Robinson Chirinos has certainly performed well with an .837 OPS, but if you look at his Statcast rankings...he's blue in everything. I don't think I need to go too much further in depth to underscore the fact that he is outclassed. Omar Narvaez should've been in his place. Next we have Chicago's James McCann who has undergone a career revival since taking his talents to the South Side. His hard hit rate, average exit velo, xwOBA (.356), and xSLG (.484) are all easily career highs. He makes a compelling case. But in the end, he cannot match the slugging prowess of Gary Sanchez. Scorching exit velo and hard hit aside, he also has an xwOBA of .410 and an xSLG of .641, which both rank within the top 15 in all of baseball. Put that together with his 23 homers to this point and OPS of .939, and it's a no-brainer. Verdict: Gary is good. This is likely the easiest decision I'll have to make. Winner: Gary Sanchez NL C: Willson Contreras (CHC) vs. Yasmani Grandal (MIL) vs. Brian McCann (ATL)Oy vey, enough with Chicago and Atlanta ruling the world! The only position where one of these two teams doesn't have a rep in the final vote is at second base (the Cubs' rep was Daniel Descalso, and even Cubs fans have to admit he's not an All-Star.) But in all fairness to the Cubs faithful, Contreras deserves to be here. His .986 OPS is the highest among all qualified catchers in the league. Despite not destroying the ball like Sanchez, his xwOBA of .363 and xSLG of .488 bear out his performance. They're not elite, but Contreras' performance to this point absolutely has. Grandal of the Brewers is more like Sanchez in his hard-hitting ways. He's mustered a .926 OPS so far this season. It turns out that Grandal has played a bit more, with nearly 50 more plate appearances than Contreras (301 to 266). In addition, his xwOBA (.369) and xSLG (.489) are both in the same neighborhood as Contreras. Then, finally, Brian McCa--huh? What's with his graphic? Well, Brian McCann only has 164 plate appearances. He hasn't really played enough to even have most of his graphics up. His .344 xwOBA falls short of the other two, anyway. Verdict: This is insanely tough. My heart is telling me Grandal, but my brain tells me Contreras. I think I'll have to play the real-world results card. Contreras' higher OPS gives him an edge, and I don't think 50 or so plate appearances isn't enough of a gap to put Grandal higher. Winner: Willson Contreras DH: Nelson Cruz (MIN) vs. J.D. Martinez (BOS) vs. Hunter Pence (TEX)This is a tough one. My home run loving self would love all three to join in the All-Star festivities, but we must be pragmatic. I'll be quick and easy with this one. J.D. Martinez has over 100 more plate appearances than Pence, and 94 more than Cruz. His .416 xwOBA and .603 xSLG exceed Cruz' .396 xwOBA and .563 xSLG, as well as Pence's .373 xwOBA and .521 xSLG. Martinez is the standout here, even if his home run total is down. Verdict: It's gotta be J.D. Though Nelson Cruz is still awesome at 38, and Pence's career revival deserves a post all its own. Winner: J.D. Martinez Here comes the hard part. AL OF: Mike Trout (LAA), Joey Gallo (TEX), and George Springer (HOU)Full list of candidates: Mookie Betts (BOS), Michael Brantley (HOU), Joey Gallo (TEX), Aaron Judge (NYY), Austin Meadows (TB), Josh Reddick (HOU), Eddie Rosario (MIN), George Springer (HOU), Mike Trout (LAA). I'll explain why the three players in the title made the cut. It is impossible to accurately create an All-Star Team without including the best player in the world. Mike Trout belongs here. His .476 xwOBA and .668 xSLG are the best in the AL. In the real world, he also has a 1.090 OPS, 1st in the AL. Joey Gallo's power is terrifying. He has more career homers than singles. He's known for that. But this year, he took his skills to the extreme. Only Aaron Judge (who I disqualified due to not having played enough) has a higher average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Gallo also has a 1.064 OPS (2nd in the AL) and a .437 xwOBA, which ranks 4th among all batters. His xSLG of .650 is the second highest in the AL, behind Trout. George Springer is in the midst of a career year, and no injury can stop him. His xwOBA of .434 is fifth in the Majors. His xSLG of .630 is 7th. He has an OPS of 1.046 (3rd in the AL). He hasn't been quite as good as Trout or Gallo, but he's been ahead of the rest of the pack, which is what matters here in the outfield. NL OF: Cody Bellinger (LAD), Christian Yelich (MIL) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL)Full list of candidates: Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL), Albert Almora Jr. (CHC), Cody Bellinger (LAD), Charlie Blackmon (COL), Jason Heyward (CHC), Nick Markakis (ATL), Joc Pederson (LAD), Kyle Schwarber (CHC), Christian Yelich (MIL). I'll explain why the three players in the title made the cut. This crop of players is honestly a joke. Three Cubs, all of whom don't deserve to be here. Two Braves. And then two Dodgers, a Brewer, and a Rockie. There are just 5 teams representing the entire outfield. This is the problem with the fan vote. But enough preaching. I'm quite satisfied that these three will be the three going into the Game; otherwise, there's a huge problem. The NL MVP is Cody Bellinger's to lose. He's been elite at everything this year, as the chart shows. He's first in the Majors in OPS (1.163), xwOBA (.482), xSLG (.702). His defense is also elite. He has been the best player in baseball this year. The reigning NL MVP is Christian Yelich. He's been absolutely outstanding in his own right but is barely overshadowed by Bellinger. His OPS is 1.149--barely behind. His xwOBA of .433 is 3rd in the NL behind Bellinger and Anthony Rendon. His xSLG of .642 is also third behind Bellinger and Rendon. (See why I'm mad that Rendon got snubbed?) Still elite, but perhaps an ocean behind these two is Ronald Acuña Jr., following up his Rookie of the Year campaign with a spectacular sophomore season. It was between him and Charlie Blackmon for this final spot, but Acuña's Statcast peripherals were far more impressive than Blackmon's. His .871 OPS is fine enough, but his .391 xwOBA truly shines, as does his .548 xSLG. Blackmon (.999 OPS but .359 xwOBA and .510 xSLG can't quite compare.) I believe Acuña deserves your vote. Conclusion and Final RosterThis vote was honestly a mess (friggin' Braves and Cubs), but we can still pick out a very good, deserving pair of starting lineups here. In the end, here's what we came up with:
Not too shabby. Thanks for reading, and don't forget to vote! Polls close at 4 PM.
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About MeI'm Jeremy, and I like baseball. Watching it and writing about it mainly. This is where the latter goes. My other hobbies include video games, singing, biking, and slacking off. I live in New Jersey and go to school at Goucher College in Baltimore. That's me on TV! If you want a better look, check out this video. Watch the stands on Kyle Lewis' home run very closely. Look for the skinny guy with the Yankees hat.
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