These past few months have been busy for baseball, and they've been busy for me. I'm trying to post more, but it's sometimes challenging to build up motivation in the dog days of summer. Here I am, though. Today, I'm making a post about all manner of things: there's no underlying theme or motif, I'm just spitballing ideas. Let's begin in Cincinnati. The Punisher: Aristides Aquino's Torrid Rise to HistoryHis brother dubbed him The Punisher when they were children in the Dominican Republic. Now Aristides Aquino is the next big thing in the Major Leagues. On August 10th, he hit three home runs in one game, and made some history. He became the second player in Major League history to hit seven home runs in his first 10 career games. The only other man to do it was Trevor Story for the Rockies in 2016. It's fascinating to watch a man who almost faces the pitcher head-on in his batting stance quickly bear down on the baseball and destroy it. Aquino's third career home run was hit at 118.3 mph, the hardest hit by a Red in the entire Statcast era. There's always the cautionary tale of small sample size, and he's had a very hot-and-cold Minor League career to this point, but as far as first impressions go, you could do far worse than Aquino. On the 12th against Washington, he hit his 8th home run in his 39th career plate appearance. Over twenty percent of his career PAs to this point have yielded a homer. It's insane. He's quickly becoming one of my favorite players to watch. One final anecdote on Aquino: on the same night of his three-homer game, Houston Astros rookie sensation Yordan Alvarez accomplished the same feat against the Orioles. Aquino and Alvarez became the first two rookies in MLB history to have three-homer games on the same day. To add to the coincidence, both of them wear the number 44. Know who else wore the number 44? The man with perhaps the most famous three-homer game in baseball history: Reggie Jackson. It's official: 44 is the three-homer game number. It's not intuitive, but it's backed up by results! Aaron Judge's Power Outage - Injuries Still LingerAaron Judge isn't having a bad season by any means. But with just 12 home runs and a .463 slugging percentage, there's a critical aspect of his game missing: power. The man with the most raw power in the Major Leagues hasn't been able to summon it with consistency this season. To diagnose Judge's sapped power stroke, we could offer all sorts of weird explanations, including the ol' reliable among Yankees fans: "he's not that good." Well, that's preposterous, so let's employ meaningful thought to see what's really going on. One big quirk with Judge's homers this year is that none of them have gone to left field. That's right; none of Judge's twelve homers have gone to left. Nine to right, three to center. That's it. He's not turning on pitches and pulling them with power. He has a .460 SLG on pulled pitches, which ranks #347 out of 372 hitters who have pulled the ball 30 times. Guys like Dee Gordon, Orlando Arcia, and Richie Martin are slugging better than Aaron Judge on their pull side, which is preposterous. So, why? During a Sunday Night Baseball broadcast on ESPN between the Yankees and Red Sox on August 4th (a game where Judge homered), Alex Rodriguez provided some great insight on how Judge's oblique, which he strained in late April, is likely still preventing him from really turning on pitches and blasting them into orbit in left. The reason I say it's valuable is because A-Rod said he suffered an oblique injury of his own. This was in 2011, before Statcast came online, so we can't analyze it as thoroughly as we can Judge's. However, Alex Rodriguez' slugging percentage after the All-Star Break (which is when all of his post-injury at-bats took place) was .353, as opposed to a .485 slugging percentage beforehand. The ramifications are evident: oblique injuries hamper your slugging abilities. The reason I'm bringing this up is because people tend to forget that just because a player is healthy enough to play doesn't mean that their injuries are totally gone and they're at 100%. Some injuries will leave a more lasting effect on your performance off the IL than others. Sure, some players go on torrid stretches since returning from injuries, but you have to contextualize the injury and see how much (or how little) that injury could still be impacting them. Predicting Gerrit Cole's Free Agent Destination Far Too EarlyGerrit Cole will be the best free agent pitcher to hit the market not just in 2020, but in recent memory. He will receive a massive payday. Through the first twenty-five starts in his contract year, the Newport Beach, California native has a 2.87 ERA and 226 strikeouts in 156.2 innings. His 36.8% K rate is tops among all qualified starting pitchers (minimum 450 plate appearances). His xwOBA of .257 is 3rd in the league among starters behind Max Scherzer (1st) and teammate Justin Verlander (2nd). In addition, Cole will be 29 in free agency, placing him solidly on the younger side of the free agent spectrum. Yeah, this man's gonna get a big paycheck. So where could he go? I'm almost certainly about to put more thought into Gerrit Cole's free agency than Gerrit Cole is right now. First off is the obvious one: the Yankees. You've likely heard the bellyaching of the Yankees fanbase about how much of a liability the starting pitching has become in the Bronx. They're not wrong. Since June 1st, the pitching rotation has a 5.63 ERA. To make matters worse. Luis Severino isn't coming back any time soon, and the front office made no additions at the deadline. The Yanks should be motivated to spend big on a pitcher in free agency after lowballing Patrick Corbin and settling on J.A. Happ, who's been abysmal. Fans can only hope the front office, which is suddenly very interested in saving money for some reason, mans up and offers Cole what he's worth. The Cardinals are another candidate with a similar story to the Yankees. Their pitching rotation has been unreliable all season long, and they made no moves at the deadline other than...trading Jedd Gyorko for Tony Cingrani. Sure. "The Best Fans In Baseball" are getting restless as a sputtering and uninspired Cardinals squad is trending toward missing the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year. Jack Flaherty is just about all they have. Miles Mikolas has declined after a big payday thanks to a suddenly ineffective slider, Michael Wacha is a meatball dispenser, Carlos Martinez is apparently a reliever now after Jordan Hicks' arm went FUBAR, Dakota Hudson is mediocre, and Adam Wainwright is 38 at the end of the season. They'll need another guy, and the front office will likely feel the pressure to make a big move. I wouldn't put it out of the question for the Braves to take a shot on Cole. Their rotation is solid, but not necessarily a strength. It depends on whether or not the Braves wish to move on from Julio Teheran, who is also a UFA in 2020. Teheran is solid, but not a game-changer like Cole could potentially be. Mike Soroka and Max Fried appear to be legit, but Mike Foltynewicz is shaky and Sean Newcomb figures to stay in the bullpen. The Braves might also desire to see more internal development. Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright are highly regarded prospects with plenty of hype around them, and the Braves have been hesitant to include them in trade offers, so keep that in mind. The Phillies should be a player for Cole too. Their rotation is devoid of depth beyond Aaron Nola, and Jake Arrieta isn't getting any younger. Vince Velazquez, Zach Eflin, and Nick Pivetta don't seem to be long-term solutions. Nor are Jason Vargas and Drew Smyly, who are both on expiring contracts. Their conquest to "spend stupid money" may not be finished just yet and the rotation is clearly the greatest deficiency facing Philly at present. We'll see just how much money they'd be able to pony up for Cole's services considering how much they already have on the books. The Brewers and Twins could certainly both use more starting pitching help, but are they willing to pay the right price for it? The Twins could potentially be spurred to make a big move if the Indians overtake them (which, as of August 12th, they have) and the Brewers' rotation is in shambles after GM David Stearns made no notable moves to improve it in the offseason. Neither rotation is excellent and they lack that face-of-the-pitching staff #1 guy, which Gerrit Cole undeniably is. As cool as it would be for either of these teams to nab Cole, I don't see it happening because they just don't have a history of doing so. Even if they do, they can very easily be outbidded by the Yankees or Cardinals. I decided to have fun with this next one. It probably won't happen, but what if the Reds signed Gerrit Cole? The Reds ostensiby have the payroll space if they want to throw all their eggs into one basket and create a pitching megastaff. A rotation of Cole-Luis Castillo-Sonny Gray-Trevor Bauer-Anthony DeSclafani would instantly be a top 3 rotation in the MLB. The Reds already broke their franchise record with a $133-million payroll this season. With a few contracts such as Matt Kemp and Alex Wood coming off the books, there should be room to grow it further. Excitement is starting to build up in the Reds' fanbase, so making a loud splash move would get people to games just like that. Of course, there's also the possibility that Gerrit Cole remains an Astro, but I'm not convinced that will happen. There's certainly reason to stick around, as the Astros will be dominant for years to come. But Houston may no longer have room for him after adding Greinke and Aaron Sanchez, and they're awaiting the arrival of top prospect Forrest Whitley. Greinke's contract ain't cheap, even with how impressively Astros GM Jeff Luhnow managed to lower his retained salary (the D-Backs are paying $32 million of the $77 million Greinke is owed--about 31% of his contract.) There's also Lance McCullers and Colin McHugh to consider, though they'll likely be long relievers who can supply rotational depth should one of their big boys hit the IL. Where do I think he's going? The Yankees, if they pay up, but if they don't, I think the Cardinals could nab him. In my opinion, the order of likelihood he signs with the teams I listed are: 1. Yankees 2. Cardinals 3. Phillies 4. Braves 5. Astros 6. Twins 7. Brewers 8. Reds. It's too early to tell, but I can't think of too many other teams who'd be primed to take a run at Cole. Gleyber Torres, Bird KillerYankees infielder Gleyber Torres, if you haven't noticed, really likes hitting against the Orioles. Yesterday he homered three times in a day-night doubleheader with the O's. These three blasts pushed his season total of home runs against Baltimore to thirteen. As you can probably expect, this is historic. He's tied a mark set by legends such as Roger Maris and Jimmie Foxx for home runs against a single team in a single season. Can he keep climbing? The Yankees play two more games against the Orioles this season. If he reaches 14, he ties the all-time mark, set by Lou Gehrig against the Cleveland Indians in 1936. If he reaches 15, the record is all his. Considering that the Orioles are well on their way to setting the Major League record for most homers allowed in a single season, it's not an inconceivable occurrence. Of course, the best part about all these homers against the Orioles is seeing legendary O's broadcaster Gary Thorne lose his marbles every time. Paul O'Neill even paid a visit to the MASN booth to hassle Thorne about it after home run number 13. His call from last night: *crack* "Ugh! Way back, left field! You've gotta be KIDDING me! Goodbye home run! ...I swear to the Lord, you gotta put four fingers up when Torres comes to the plate, 'cause when he comes around third, it's too late!" (https://twitter.com/Yankees/status/1161083092125310981?s=20) Gary Thorne's sanity might not be able to withstand any more home runs from Gleyber. ...Like, ever. Like, even after this season. Like next year. Like five years down the line. Watching Torres is gonna give him flashbacks. Poor dude. Can The Royals' Offense Rebuild Quicker Than Expected?The 2019 Kansas City Royals cannot and will not be mistaken for being a good baseball team. They sit thirty-three games below .500 with a -99 run differential. But they might be good quicker than expected, and their offense will lead the way. So who are the names to know? First, there's Whit Merrifield, who is just about the only Royal most people know about. He's just about a five-tool player who reaches base at a high clip, plays plus defense at multiple positions, steals plenty of bases, and even has some pop. He's having a career year offensively and is on an extremely team-friendly deal. He typically plays second base, but can also cover short, first base, and right field. 2019 Stats: .306/.361/.491 (.852 OPS, 121 wRC+), 14 HR, 64 RBI, .360 wOBA, .338 xwOBA, 16 SB, 28.7 ft/s sprint speed Second, there's Hunter Dozier. Dozier was the first man I covered ever on this blog, and he's still crushing baseballs. He's one of the top hitters in the American League right now, and most people probably don't know who he is. He probably should have been an All-Star, but it's no worries, seeing as he's still rather unknown. He mans the hot corner. 2019 Stats: .285/.366/.561 (.926 OPS, 138 wRC+), 22 HR, 66 RBI, .386 wOBA, .375 xwOBA, 92.4 mph average exit velocity, 44.7% hard hit rate Finally, there's Jorge Soler, a bonafide slugger with light tower power. Acquired in a one-for-one swap with the Chicago Cubs for closer Wade Davis, Soler had mostly underperformed his prospect pedigree before 2018. He showed flashes in an injury-hampered 2018 before breaking out and crushing baseballs with authority this season. He patrols the outfield, usually in a corner spot. 2019 Stats: .259/.344/.555 (.899 OPS, 131 wRC+), 35 HR, 87 RBI, .376 wOBA, .389 xwOBA, 92.3 mph average exit velocity, 48.1% hard hit rate Now, three players does not a team make. But the foundations are already here. What's more, they'll be sticking around. Whit Merrifield isn't a free agent until 2023. Hunter Dozier is under team control until 2024. Soler, 2022. The Royals have time on their side, and they should be able to secure another top draft pick this year. Why deal any of these players? ...Oh Yeah, The Mets Are Good NowSoooo...what's happening over here in Queens? The Mets are 21-7 since the All-Star Break and are back in the NL Wild Card race. As if there needed to be yet another team in contention. Anyway, there's no denying that the Mets have played like a unit recently since clubhouse infighting, ineffectiveness from key players, and general underperformance threatened to kill the first season of new GM Brodie Van Wagenen's tenure. Something changed, though. The Mets finally started living up to expectations. And it's about time we started respecting their roster again. It's not perfect, but the Mets have plenty of talent. Their hitting core consists of NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner Pete Alonso and NL batting title candidate Jeff McNeil, as well as slugging outfielders Michael Conforto and J.D. Davis, the latter being Van Wagenen's finest acquisition as GM. Their pitching rotation is undeniably elite. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and deadline deal Marcus Stroman create a top trifecta in the league. Zack Wheeler as a fourth starter doesn't hurt either. The bullpen is where it always gets interesting with NL teams, and the Mets are no different. While Seth Lugo has been dominant down the stretch, and Justin Wilson and Robert Gsellman have gotten results, the big story is Edwin Diaz. He continues to scuffle in spite of the Mets' new winning ways, and it's not hard to diagnose the reason why. Despite a high K rate and xwOBA, the dude gets hit like a truck. A hard hit rate allowed of 45.8% and average exit velocity against of 90.3 mph are bottom marks in the entire league. When contact is made, Diaz gets rocked. Other peripherals for Diaz are good, but unless he finds a way to remedy his hard hit problem, the desired concrete results might not show up. Do I think the Mets are a playoff team? Nah, but this is the season I expected them to have in March. It sure makes them fun, even if there are a ton of red flags, especially pertaining to the farm system, which has stripped bare many of its top assets in recent trades directed by Van Wagenen. It adds just a little bit more chaos to a crowded NL race, which isn't a bad thing. I'm still salty they only had to give up two prospects for Stroman, though. This crosstown rival wanted the Stro Show for himself. And, that's all! Thanks for getting to the end of this thing! At some point I considered splitting these all into separate posts, but figured I was too far along for that. It's something I'll think about next time. Thanks again for reading, and I'll see you next month!
...Too soon?
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About MeI'm Jeremy, and I like baseball. Watching it and writing about it mainly. This is where the latter goes. My other hobbies include video games, singing, biking, and slacking off. I live in New Jersey and go to school at Goucher College in Baltimore. That's me on TV! If you want a better look, check out this video. Watch the stands on Kyle Lewis' home run very closely. Look for the skinny guy with the Yankees hat.
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